WELCOME TO THE i10
SECOND INSTALLMENT OF INSIDE THE 10:
Earlier, I talked about what makes me want to look at some ‘inside the 10’ (i10) stats, so now let’s do it. Just as a baseline FYI, the NFL average is right around 1 TD for every 3 carries or targets inside the 10.
LeGarrette Blount aka “The Garrett” (h/t @lordreebs):
The New England Patriots ran 103 plays from their opponent’s 1-10, which was tied with ATL for 2nd ranked in 2016, and way up from their 77 in 2015. This helped them lead the league in rushes from down in there last year, getting Blount a league leading 42 i10 carries and 15 i10 TD’s, including a league leading 11 TD’s from the 1, which is smothering as the next closest over the last 7 years had 6. Last year was somewhat like their super bowl winning effort in 2014 when they had a league leading 54 rAtt from the 1-10 on 99 plays, but those i10 carries got divided up amongst 4 guys, as Ridley only played first 6 games then Blount resigned and played 5 of their final games. Ridley was the primary beneficiary of 31 i10 carries + 11 TD’s back in 2012, however, when NEP logged a league high 73 rushes from the 1-10, with the next closest team only managing 54.
It remains to be seen how these carries will get split up in 2017, but right now it looks like Mike Gillislee has substantial TD upside. Now don’t forget that when they signed Rex Burkhead in March they didn’t know whether they’d land Gillislee a month later. Gillislee signed a deal that pays him a fairly substantial $4m this year and costs them a 5th round pick. Philly was surprisingly (to me) 5th with 47 rushes from the 1-10 last year, enabling Ryan Mathews to pile up a healthy 25 i10 carries (and 8 TD’s) in 13 games. Now that may be a big drop off from Blount’s volume, but still actually quite a bit, as we’ll see below.
2 years ago, Pittsburgh led the league with 89 plays from the 1-10 which got them 45 rushes, but this volume was down in 2016 with only half as many rushes, leaving them bottom 3 in the league. Their scoring wasn’t down last year, however, they just scored a lot more often from outside the 10 and this showed up in Bell’s i10 volume, as he only managed 14 i10 carries and 4 targets for 9 TD’s over 12 games. This 50% TD success rate on targets + carries is unusually high even for a guy with his talent, as evidenced by his previous 22 games where he only bagged 8 TD’s on 30 i10 carries + targets.
33 i10 carries coupled with 5 i10 targets netted him a fat 16 TD’s at a healthy 42% TD success rate from inside the 10. It might be worth noting that of all 32 teams, Arizona Cardinals had the lowest average yards to go from their opponent’s 1-10, so that favorable variance might’ve played into his above average TD rate a bit.
Dallas was maybe not as prolific rushing from the 1-10 as people might expect, coming in at just 3 above league averages. Dak siphoned off 9 available i10 carries, but Zeke still salvaged 22 (and 9 of his 16 TD’s) as he picked up nearly all the RB volume down there. Dallas was 3rd from the bottom in # of drives last year, just 1 ahead of Chicago, and this was partly due to the success of these drives, but just as much to their lack of success forcing turnovers + preventing 1st downs. Also, Dallas faced the 2nd highest average yards to go from their opponent’s 1-10, making 9 TD’s on 22 carries (41%) look maybe even more impressive.
Note: Zeke led all RB’s with 6 TD’s from outside the 10-last year, which was more than any single season from Adrian Peterson other than his rookie year – when he had 10.
Under a coaching staff no longer with the team the Buffalo Bills had a huge rush/pass split from their opponent’s 1-10 last year, as they were 2nd from the top in rushing attempts (59) and 8th from the bottom passing (27), which enabled McCoy to pick up 24 i10 carries and 3 targets for 9 TD’s, while Tygod and Gillislee each siphoned off 11 i10 carries.
In only 12 games last year Gordon picked up a fat 10 i10 TD’s on 27 i10 carries, which is pretty substantial volume, but what I didn’t see were the i10 targets that I expected with Woodhead’s injury (he only saw 2). The Chargers were a little slanted toward the pass when in close, with 42 passes from the 1-10 compared to 36 runs, and I must wonder if that might tilt a bit the other way under Lynn, who was previously in Buffalo.
Atlanta Falcons was a top offense last year under lil Shanny and this was reflected in both total plays from their opponent’s 1-10 as well as rushes, in particular, where they finished 4th at 49. Freeman got the bulk of their i10 carries, picking up 27 and 5 targets for 9 TD’s, while Tevin Coleman only got 11 i10 carries and 4 targets, which got him 7 TD’s.
Carolina Panthers had a very similar run heavy split to Buffalo from the 1-10, logging 40 runs to only 22 passes. While Cam siphoned off 10 of their i10 carries for 5 TD’s J-Stew still managed a pretty substantial 20 of these carries and 9 TD’s in only 12 games. With the previous year yielding a more typical 5 TD on 18 i10 carries, he probably was a bit on the lucky side.
While disappointing in overall production, Hill did manage to see volume in close with 24 i10 carries (7 TD) compared to only 5 for Giovanni Bernard in the 10g he played. This was identical to the 24 i10 carries Hill picked up in 2015.
Next time we’ll look at a few guys who didn’t quite enjoy as much volume inside the 10 as some of these guys did.
Written by @eomrules – The Inventor of the i10