WELCOME TO THE i10
THIRD INSTALLMENT OF INSIDE THE 10:
Written and arranged by @eomrules
In the previous installment we saw what top end volume looks like for RB’s from inside the 10, so now let’s look at a few guys who didn’t see quite as many touches from in close last year. Remember that league average is roughly 1 TD per every 3 carries/targets from inside the 10 (i10), and bear in mind that not all touches are equal. You would rather get 15 tries from the 1 than 25 from the 9, so of course variance plays into it a bit.
As a team, the Chicago Bears only saw 26 rushes from the opponent’s 1-10, meaning there were only 5 teams that saw less, and I’m not really all that optimistic this year’s offense under Mike Glennon will look that much better. Howard saw 71% of the snaps in his team’s final 14g, piling up 250 carries + 50 tgts on the year, but only managed 16 i10 rAtt + 2 tgts for 6 total TD’s down in the i10 due to his team’s low offensive volume. He did produce 7 100+ yd games, however, so if you expect similar usage and play from Howard in a 100 yd bonus league maybe that’ll help out a bit. If we’re looking for any further reason for optimism, there were only 2 teams in the league who averaged higher yards to go from their opponent’s 1-10, so if that settles down a bit maybe Howard converts a few extra TD’s.
This guy might be a little polarizing for the community this year, as he got fat off of big plays. Jay is tied with Howard for 3rd in 20+ yd runs, behind Zeke and McCoy. Overall, MIA offense wasn’t particularly exciting, finishing 25th in plays run from their opponent’s 1-10, only 4 plays ahead of the Browns, and turning that into 32 rushes, garnering Ajayi 15 i10 carries + 1 tgt for 5 of his 8 total TD’s with one of those 8 coming in OT. Jay profiled like Howard, actually.
Ingram’s usage in the NOS high volume attack has probably been frustrating for all his owners out there, as NOS led the league in plays from their opponent’s 1-10, and finished only behind NEP + BUF with 52 rushes, but this translated into just 15 i10 carries + 5 tgts for 6 total TD’s for Ingram, nearly identical to Howard’s numbers. Tim Hightower picked up another 16 i10 carries, nearly half of which came in a single game vs SEA where Ingram only played 8 snaps due to losing a fumble. This might be worth noting, however, that the 7 i10 opportunities Hightower saw in that game were largely due to his own inefficiency. To put NOS volume in context for the Peterson fans, 2015 Minnesota saw 39 rushes from their opponent’s 1-10, which was 6th in the league that year, resulting in 24 i10 rAtt for Peterson and 7 TD’s.
The moribund Houston Texans offense produced just about the same with 32 rushes from their opponent’s 1-10 as Miami and the NY Jets did last year, earning Miller 15 i10 carries for 5 TD’s. His backfield partner Alfred Blue, stole another 10 (0 TD) in the back half of the year. Of course, the new look HOU offense has added Foreman and a rookie QB, and while the return of Watt might be encouraging on the surface, their defense was actually very successful in 2016, and only very marginally better stopping teams with him the previous year when they manufactured 26 rushes from their opponent’s 1-10.
Another victim in a parade of #woat offenses, as only 3 teams ran fewer plays from their opponent’s 1-10 than Cleveland. This netted Crowell 6 TD’s on 18 i10 rAtt, with Duke Johnson being a non-factor, stealing only 4 carries and 3 tgts down in there. It didn’t help any that his defense was just about the worst in the league statistically.
The NY Jets was right there with some of these other terrible offenses, although there’s been a shake up this year with the switch in OC from Gailey to Morton, and turnover in their passing game and offensive line. In essentially only 12g Forte picked up 5 Td’s on 17 i10 carries, with Bilal Powell poaching another 7 i10 carries and 2 tgts for 2 total TD’s in close.
Like his peers, Gurley was the victim of an offense that ran the 3rd fewest plays from their opponent’s 1-10. There’s been a pretty significant coaching turnover, however, with McVay and Shanahan’s disciple, LaFleur, coming over from the Redskins, Wade Phillips taking over the D, and Aaron Kromer, formerly with rushing leader, BUF, captaining their offensive line. Gurley dominated his team’s i10 rAtt, turning 19 of them into only 5 TD’s, compared with the 14 + 7 TD’s he saw his rookie year
I wonder if CJ belongs in the higher volume group, as he picked up 11 i10 carries in only about 7g before his season ending injury, turning those into 4 TD’s. Devontae Booker closed out the year with another 11 of these carries and 3 TD’s, but in about 10g. The previous year, CJ had basically been erased inside the 10, as Ronnie Hillman dominated with 16 i10 carries. Another new coaching staff to factor in now plus a healthy Jamaal Charles to deal with.
Doug E Fresh nearly identical to CJ Anderson in that he picked up 12 i10 carries for 3 TD’s in only 7g. Starts the season suspended for 3g due to hamster feed, and Bucs have drafted tout darling, Jeremy McNichols.
Washington only put up 33 rushes from their opponent’s 1-10, which is actually on par with some of the worst offenses in the league, and they were looking at the highest average ‘to go’ yardage once they got down in there, so their RB were probably upset. El Gordo saw 40+% of the snaps in their final 9g, picking up 12 i10 carries in that stretch for 4 TD’s. Chris Thompson only saw a trickle in close with a paltry 3 i10 carries and 2 tgts all year. Addition of Samaje Perine means, of course, that you’re in trouble if you already own Kelley, as his value may be watered down as you read.
Written and arranged by @eomrules